predict positively/negatively

German translation: positive/negative Prognosekraft besitzen [/aufweisen]

15:22 Feb 17, 2020
English to German translations [PRO]
Bus/Financial - Economics / Prognosen
English term or phrase: predict positively/negatively
Ich habe hier eine wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Studie, die sich mit Marktprognosen anhand von Stimmungen der Marktakteure befasst. Dabei ist mir unklar, wie ich predict positively bzw. negatively verstehen soll. Bedeutet das, das keine Voraussagbarkeit anhand der dispersion of beliefs (DOB) besteht?

When we define the dispersion of beliefs of our agents, we observe that they are related to current and future economic conditions. We observe that DOB(S&P500) works at intermediate horizon, while DOB(VIX) effect is rather long-run. A high level of dispersion of beliefs regarding market ***negatively predicts*** market returns at around annual horizon, and positively (due to lower market valuation) – dividend yield. DOB(VIX) has no short-term predictability for the market, but ***predicts it positively*** for the long horizons (18 months and beyond). Market DOB ***negatively predicts*** industrial production (mostly beyond one year horizon) and economic activity (six to 17 months) with borderline significance. DOB(VIX), ***positively predicts*** industrial production for longer horizons and has mostly insignificant (though positive) relation to economic activity. Thus, even though contemporaneously both DOB variables are positively correlated, they possess quite distinct relation to the future economy: DOB(S&P500) has medium-term negative predictability, while DOB(VIX) shows longer-term positive predictability.
Annette Scheler
Germany
Local time: 01:54
German translation:positive/negative Prognosekraft besitzen [/aufweisen]
Explanation:
Diese Formulierung findet sich z. B. in der Charttechnik.
Näher am gesuchten Kontext ist eine Fundstelle im ZEW Jahresbericht 2007:

„Allerdings hat das Aktienmarktsentiment eine signifikant negative Prognosekraft für künftige Überschussrenditen. Dies steht auch in Übereinstimmung mit Ergebnissen, die aus dem Bereich „Behavioral Finance“ bekannt sind.“
https://madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/1896/1/jb07.pdf
Selected response from:

B&B FinTrans
Germany
Local time: 01:54
Grading comment
Danke!
4 KudoZ points were awarded for this answer



Summary of answers provided
3 +1positive/negative Prognosekraft besitzen [/aufweisen]
B&B FinTrans
4positive / negative Prognosen abgeben
Vittorio Ferretti


  

Answers


1 hr   confidence: Answerer confidence 3/5Answerer confidence 3/5 peer agreement (net): +1
positive/negative Prognosekraft besitzen [/aufweisen]


Explanation:
Diese Formulierung findet sich z. B. in der Charttechnik.
Näher am gesuchten Kontext ist eine Fundstelle im ZEW Jahresbericht 2007:

„Allerdings hat das Aktienmarktsentiment eine signifikant negative Prognosekraft für künftige Überschussrenditen. Dies steht auch in Übereinstimmung mit Ergebnissen, die aus dem Bereich „Behavioral Finance“ bekannt sind.“
https://madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/1896/1/jb07.pdf

B&B FinTrans
Germany
Local time: 01:54
Specializes in field
Native speaker of: Native in GermanGerman
PRO pts in category: 16
Grading comment
Danke!

Peer comments on this answer (and responses from the answerer)
agree  destradi
1 hr
  -> Danke!
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5 hrs   confidence: Answerer confidence 4/5Answerer confidence 4/5
positive / negative Prognosen abgeben


Explanation:
...

Vittorio Ferretti
Local time: 01:54
Specializes in field
Native speaker of: Native in GermanGerman
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