English to Russian Science Mathematics & Statistics финансовые рынки

Добрый вечер!

Статья о nonfarm payrolls (изменении количества занятых в несельскохозяйственном секторе).

Many will take issue with this study because I am not taking into account the expected change in nonfarm payrolls and comparing that to the actual number. I performed that study as well. Many analysts assume that the release of the change in nonfarm payrolls sets the trading tone for the rest of the month, especially if the actual number significantly deviates from the consensus. Since the Employment Situation report is released on the first Friday of the month, this is a logical but false assumption. I gathered the average estimate and the actual number for the change in nonfarm payrolls from July 1998 until present (July 2007). This is 110 months of data. I subtracted the average survey (expected number) from the actual number to find out if the change in nonfarm payrolls exceeded or failed to exceed market expectations. A positive number indicates that the number exceeded expectations, and a negative number indicates that the number failed to meet expectations. The standard deviation of the difference is 92,000 (rounded). In statistics, a difference of two standard deviations or more is considered a significant difference. In other words, if the difference between the estimate and the actual number is at least 184,000 (92,000 x 2), then the difference is considered extreme. If a significant positive difference consistently shows up with a monthly gain in the DXY and if a significant negative difference consistently shows up with a monthly loss in the DXY, then it makes sense to assume that when the actual change in nonfarm payrolls significantly deviates from the consensus estimate, the trading tone is set for the rest of the month in the direction of the difference.

average survey – прогнозное значение (среднее по исследованию)?

Спасибо.